MLB · moneyline · Published system
ace (ERA 3.00 or lower) starter as an underdog vs a starter with ERA under 3.50
ace (ERA 3.00 or lower) starter as an underdog vs a starter with ERA under 3.50. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.era": {"max": 3.0}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "line.ml": {"min": 100}, "opponent.pitcher.era": {"lt": 3.5}, "opponent.pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
200-248 since 2021, ROI after the vig +1.3%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 200-248 (n=448), won 44.6% (95% range 40.1% to 49.3%); break-even 43.6%; ROI after the vig +1.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 86-123, -6.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 114-125, +8.0%
- 2021
- 23-44 (n=67), ROI -21.4%
- 2022
- 43-53 (n=96), ROI +1.6%
- 2023
- 20-26 (n=46), ROI -1.3%
- 2024
- 39-50 (n=89), ROI +0.8%
- 2025
- 34-36 (n=70), ROI +9.6%
- 2026
- 41-39 (n=80), ROI +14.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.