MLB · moneyline · Published system
Ace on 6+ days rest, as an underdog
Ace on 6+ days rest, as an underdog. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.era": {"max": 3.25}, "pitcher.daysRest": {"min": 6}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "line.ml": {"min": 100}} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
140-157 since 2021, ROI after the vig +6.5%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 140-157 (n=297), won 47.1% (95% range 41.5% to 52.8%); break-even 44.2%; ROI after the vig +6.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 61-75, +1.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 79-82, +10.7%
- 2021
- 24-32 (n=56), ROI +0.9%
- 2022
- 22-29 (n=51), ROI -3.2%
- 2023
- 15-14 (n=29), ROI +11.2%
- 2024
- 21-33 (n=54), ROI -8.7%
- 2025
- 32-24 (n=56), ROI +27.4%
- 2026
- 26-25 (n=51), ROI +12.8%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.