MLB · moneyline · Published system
Back a workhorse (6+ IP/start) starter as an underdog
Back a workhorse (6+ IP/start) starter as an underdog. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.inningsPerStart": {"min": 6}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "line.ml": {"min": 100}} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
251-297 since 2021, ROI after the vig +3.7%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 251-297 (n=548), won 45.8% (95% range 41.7% to 50.0%); break-even 44.4%; ROI after the vig +3.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 128-169, -2.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 123-128, +10.8%
- 2021
- 38-45 (n=83), ROI +2.5%
- 2022
- 58-74 (n=132), ROI +1.1%
- 2023
- 32-50 (n=82), ROI -12.4%
- 2024
- 55-52 (n=107), ROI +15.8%
- 2025
- 31-32 (n=63), ROI +12.8%
- 2026
- 37-44 (n=81), ROI +2.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.