MLB · moneyline · Published system
Back an ace (ERA 3.00 or lower) starter as an underdog
Back an ace (ERA 3.00 or lower) starter as an underdog. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.era": {"max": 3.0}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "line.ml": {"min": 100}} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
423-516 since 2021, ROI after the vig +1.7%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 423-516 (n=939), won 45.1% (95% range 41.9% to 48.2%); break-even 44.2%; ROI after the vig +1.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 183-258, -6.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 240-258, +8.6%
- 2021
- 50-97 (n=147), ROI -22.7%
- 2022
- 88-110 (n=198), ROI +0.8%
- 2023
- 45-51 (n=96), ROI +5.2%
- 2024
- 77-95 (n=172), ROI +2.5%
- 2025
- 79-85 (n=164), ROI +7.6%
- 2026
- 84-78 (n=162), ROI +15.9%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.