MLB · moneyline · Published system
Bounce-back: ERA under 3.75 starter lasted 3 IP or fewer last start
Bounce-back: ERA under 3.75 starter lasted 3 IP or fewer last start. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.last.innings": {"max": 3}, "pitcher.era": {"lt": 3.75}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
188-162 since 2021, ROI after the vig +0.1%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 188-162 (n=350), won 53.7% (95% range 48.5% to 58.9%); break-even 53.6%; ROI after the vig +0.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 85-83, -5.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 103-79, +5.7%
- 2021
- 36-30 (n=66), ROI +2.5%
- 2022
- 28-26 (n=54), ROI -3.2%
- 2023
- 21-27 (n=48), ROI -20.3%
- 2024
- 38-24 (n=62), ROI +12.4%
- 2025
- 24-25 (n=49), ROI -10.3%
- 2026
- 41-30 (n=71), ROI +10.9%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.