MLB · moneyline · Published system
Bounce-back: ERA under 3.75 starter walked 4+ last start
Bounce-back: ERA under 3.75 starter walked 4+ last start. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.last.walks": {"min": 4}, "pitcher.era": {"lt": 3.75}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
365-285 since 2021, ROI after the vig +1.9%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 365-285 (n=650), won 56.1% (95% range 52.3% to 59.9%); break-even 55.4%; ROI after the vig +1.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 166-139, -2.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 199-146, +5.9%
- 2021
- 59-47 (n=106), ROI -3.0%
- 2022
- 51-52 (n=103), ROI -7.5%
- 2023
- 56-40 (n=96), ROI +3.0%
- 2024
- 76-47 (n=123), ROI +13.2%
- 2025
- 68-48 (n=116), ROI +8.0%
- 2026
- 55-51 (n=106), ROI -4.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.