MLB · moneyline · Published system
Early-season road dogs off a loss
March-May; road underdog +100 to +160; lost previous game. Bet: back them on the moneyline.
490-566 since 2021, ROI after the vig +4.5%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 490-566 (n=1056), won 46.4% (95% range 43.4% to 49.4%); break-even 44.6%; ROI after the vig +4.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 226-254, +7.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 264-312, +2.4%
- 2021
- 83-90 (n=173), ROI +8.6%
- 2022
- 75-80 (n=155), ROI +10.4%
- 2023
- 68-84 (n=152), ROI +1.8%
- 2024
- 97-95 (n=192), ROI +13.1%
- 2025
- 74-96 (n=170), ROI -3.8%
- 2026
- 93-121 (n=214), ROI -2.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.