MLB · moneyline · Published system
ERA 3.25-or-lower starter, day game after a night game, underdog or pick
ERA 3.25-or-lower starter, day game after a night game, underdog or pick. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.era": {"max": 3.25}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "schedule.dayAfterNight": true, "line.ml": {"min": -110}} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
194-213 since 2021, ROI after the vig +4.5%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 194-213 (n=407), won 47.7% (95% range 42.9% to 52.5%); break-even 45.9%; ROI after the vig +4.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 86-96, +3.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 108-117, +5.3%
- 2021
- 24-23 (n=47), ROI +10.8%
- 2022
- 36-37 (n=73), ROI +10.6%
- 2023
- 26-36 (n=62), ROI -10.8%
- 2024
- 35-42 (n=77), ROI -3.1%
- 2025
- 41-37 (n=78), ROI +16.4%
- 2026
- 32-38 (n=70), ROI +2.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.