MLB · moneyline · Published system
ERA 3.25-or-lower starter, series finale, underdog or pick
ERA 3.25-or-lower starter, series finale, underdog or pick. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.era": {"max": 3.25}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "derived.seriesFinale": true, "line.ml": {"min": -110}} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
230-278 since 2021, ROI after the vig +0.5%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 230-278 (n=508), won 45.3% (95% range 41.0% to 49.6%); break-even 45.4%; ROI after the vig +0.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 99-134, -4.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 131-144, +4.9%
- 2021
- 31-37 (n=68), ROI +1.9%
- 2022
- 42-53 (n=95), ROI +1.2%
- 2023
- 26-44 (n=70), ROI -18.9%
- 2024
- 46-49 (n=95), ROI +5.9%
- 2025
- 42-52 (n=94), ROI -1.8%
- 2026
- 43-43 (n=86), ROI +11.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.