MLB · moneyline · Published system
ERA 3.25-or-lower starter, team lost 3+ straight, underdog or pick
ERA 3.25-or-lower starter, team lost 3+ straight, underdog or pick. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.era": {"max": 3.25}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "form.winStreak": {"max": -3}, "line.ml": {"min": -110}} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
143-131 since 2021, ROI after the vig +15.0%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 143-131 (n=274), won 52.2% (95% range 46.3% to 58.0%); break-even 44.7%; ROI after the vig +15.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 59-63, +6.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 84-68, +21.8%
- 2021
- 15-24 (n=39), ROI -13.7%
- 2022
- 27-25 (n=52), ROI +14.1%
- 2023
- 17-14 (n=31), ROI +19.4%
- 2024
- 24-33 (n=57), ROI -6.5%
- 2025
- 38-20 (n=58), ROI +41.1%
- 2026
- 22-15 (n=37), ROI +35.1%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.