MLB · moneyline · Published system
ERA 3.25-or-lower starter, team off a loss, underdog or pick
ERA 3.25-or-lower starter, team off a loss, underdog or pick. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.era": {"max": 3.25}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "form.prevResult": "L", "line.ml": {"min": -110}} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
430-511 since 2021, ROI after the vig +0.3%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 430-511 (n=941), won 45.7% (95% range 42.5% to 48.9%); break-even 45.4%; ROI after the vig +0.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 183-254, -7.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 247-257, +7.0%
- 2021
- 49-93 (n=142), ROI -22.7%
- 2022
- 78-99 (n=177), ROI -1.6%
- 2023
- 56-62 (n=118), ROI +2.0%
- 2024
- 88-107 (n=195), ROI -0.1%
- 2025
- 93-75 (n=168), ROI +19.4%
- 2026
- 66-75 (n=141), ROI +2.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.