MLB · moneyline · Published system
ERA 4.75+ starter as a favorite, division game: fade
ERA 4.75+ starter as a favorite, division game: fade. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.era": {"min": 4.75}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "matchup.divisionGame": true, "line.ml": {"max": -101}} Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
278-328 since 2021, ROI after the vig +1.9%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 278-328 (n=606), won 45.9% (95% range 41.9% to 49.9%); break-even 45.3%; ROI after the vig +1.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 147-175, +1.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 131-153, +2.5%
- 2021
- 60-74 (n=134), ROI +0.1%
- 2022
- 36-56 (n=92), ROI -12.3%
- 2023
- 51-45 (n=96), ROI +16.2%
- 2024
- 39-44 (n=83), ROI +6.9%
- 2025
- 44-52 (n=96), ROI +2.0%
- 2026
- 48-57 (n=105), ROI -0.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.