MLB · moneyline · Published system
ERA 4.75+ starter as a favorite, opponent won 4+ straight: fade
ERA 4.75+ starter as a favorite, opponent won 4+ straight: fade. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.era": {"min": 4.75}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "opponent.form.winStreak": {"min": 4}, "line.ml": {"max": -101}} Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
43-41 since 2021, ROI after the vig +8.6%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 43-41 (n=84), won 51.2% (95% range 40.7% to 61.6%); break-even 47.8%; ROI after the vig +8.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 21-18, +16.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 22-23, +1.6%
- 2021
- 11-4 (n=15), ROI +53.6%
- 2022
- 4-4 (n=8), ROI +0.6%
- 2023
- 6-10 (n=16), ROI -9.6%
- 2024
- 6-8 (n=14), ROI -16.1%
- 2025
- 11-9 (n=20), ROI +13.9%
- 2026
- 5-6 (n=11), ROI +1.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.