MLB · moneyline · Published system
ERA 4.75+ starter as a favorite, team lost 3+ straight: fade
ERA 4.75+ starter as a favorite, team lost 3+ straight: fade. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.era": {"min": 4.75}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "form.winStreak": {"max": -3}, "line.ml": {"max": -101}} Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
85-92 since 2021, ROI after the vig +3.0%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 85-92 (n=177), won 48.0% (95% range 40.8% to 55.4%); break-even 46.9%; ROI after the vig +3.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 47-53, -0.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 38-39, +7.4%
- 2021
- 21-17 (n=38), ROI +16.5%
- 2022
- 9-15 (n=24), ROI -21.8%
- 2023
- 17-21 (n=38), ROI -3.5%
- 2024
- 9-16 (n=25), ROI -21.8%
- 2025
- 16-11 (n=27), ROI +33.6%
- 2026
- 13-12 (n=25), ROI +8.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.