MLB · moneyline · Published system
ERA 4.75+ starter as a favorite, team off a loss: fade
ERA 4.75+ starter as a favorite, team off a loss: fade. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.era": {"min": 4.75}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "form.prevResult": "L", "line.ml": {"max": -101}} Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
396-439 since 2021, ROI after the vig +2.8%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 396-439 (n=835), won 47.4% (95% range 44.1% to 50.8%); break-even 46.4%; ROI after the vig +2.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 198-227, +1.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 198-212, +4.6%
- 2021
- 82-80 (n=162), ROI +8.9%
- 2022
- 46-57 (n=103), ROI -1.4%
- 2023
- 70-90 (n=160), ROI -5.3%
- 2024
- 49-71 (n=120), ROI -11.2%
- 2025
- 68-57 (n=125), ROI +19.5%
- 2026
- 81-84 (n=165), ROI +4.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.