MLB · moneyline · Published system
ERA 4.75+ starter as a favorite, traveled east 2+ time zones: fade
ERA 4.75+ starter as a favorite, traveled east 2+ time zones: fade. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.era": {"min": 4.75}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "travel.tzShift": {"min": 2}, "line.ml": {"max": -101}} Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
28-24 since 2021, ROI after the vig +18.3%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 28-24 (n=52), won 53.8% (95% range 40.5% to 66.7%); break-even 46.1%; ROI after the vig +18.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 10-12, -0.9%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 18-12, +32.3%
- 2021
- 4-3 (n=7), ROI +25.9%
- 2022
- 1-4 (n=5), ROI -53.6%
- 2023
- 5-5 (n=10), ROI +6.7%
- 2024
- 5-3 (n=8), ROI +38.3%
- 2025
- 4-4 (n=8), ROI +6.2%
- 2026
- 9-5 (n=14), ROI +43.9%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.