MLB · moneyline · Published system
Fade a bad-ERA (5.00+) starter as a home favorite
Fade a bad-ERA (5.00+) starter as a home favorite. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.era": {"min": 5.0}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "side": "home", "line.ml": {"max": -101}} Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
451-537 since 2021, ROI after the vig +0.0%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 451-537 (n=988), won 45.6% (95% range 42.6% to 48.8%); break-even 45.8%; ROI after the vig +0.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 212-263, -1.7%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 239-274, +1.7%
- 2021
- 81-105 (n=186), ROI -4.7%
- 2022
- 45-67 (n=112), ROI -11.1%
- 2023
- 86-91 (n=177), ROI +7.4%
- 2024
- 75-91 (n=166), ROI +1.3%
- 2025
- 69-88 (n=157), ROI -3.6%
- 2026
- 95-95 (n=190), ROI +6.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.