MLB · moneyline · Published system
Fade a high-WHIP (1.45+) starter as a favorite
Fade a high-WHIP (1.45+) starter as a favorite. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.whip": {"min": 1.45}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "line.ml": {"max": -101}} Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
540-626 since 2021, ROI after the vig +0.8%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 540-626 (n=1166), won 46.3% (95% range 43.5% to 49.2%); break-even 46.3%; ROI after the vig +0.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 264-327, -1.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 276-299, +2.7%
- 2021
- 80-115 (n=195), ROI -10.0%
- 2022
- 71-91 (n=162), ROI -2.1%
- 2023
- 113-121 (n=234), ROI +7.0%
- 2024
- 80-113 (n=193), ROI -8.7%
- 2025
- 70-89 (n=159), ROI -5.7%
- 2026
- 126-97 (n=223), ROI +18.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.