MLB · moneyline · Published system
Fade a high-WHIP (1.45+) starter as a favorite of -150 or shorter
Fade a high-WHIP (1.45+) starter as a favorite of -150 or shorter. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.whip": {"min": 1.45}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "line.ml": {"max": -150}} Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
142-175 since 2021, ROI after the vig +13.4%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 142-175 (n=317), won 44.8% (95% range 39.4% to 50.3%); break-even 39.1%; ROI after the vig +13.4%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 85-95, +19.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 57-80, +5.5%
- 2021
- 23-26 (n=49), ROI +17.5%
- 2022
- 24-29 (n=53), ROI +16.1%
- 2023
- 38-40 (n=78), ROI +23.0%
- 2024
- 23-39 (n=62), ROI -4.1%
- 2025
- 18-26 (n=44), ROI +1.8%
- 2026
- 16-15 (n=31), ROI +29.8%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.