MLB · moneyline · Published system
Fade a lucky (ERA 3.25 or lower, WHIP 1.30+) starter as a road favorite
Fade a lucky (ERA 3.25 or lower, WHIP 1.30+) starter as a road favorite. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.era": {"max": 3.25}, "pitcher.whip": {"min": 1.3}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "side": "away", "line.ml": {"max": -101}} Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
33-38 since 2021, ROI after the vig +2.4%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 33-38 (n=71), won 46.5% (95% range 35.4% to 58.0%); break-even 45.5%; ROI after the vig +2.4%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 12-16, -0.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 21-22, +4.1%
- 2021
- 6-4 (n=10), ROI +48.5%
- 2022
- 2-3 (n=5), ROI -11.9%
- 2023
- 4-9 (n=13), ROI -33.4%
- 2024
- 12-11 (n=23), ROI +16.4%
- 2025
- 6-8 (n=14), ROI -13.0%
- 2026
- 3-3 (n=6), ROI -3.0%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.