MLB · moneyline · Published system
Fade a short-outing (4.8 IP/start or fewer) starter as a favorite
Fade a short-outing (4.8 IP/start or fewer) starter as a favorite. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.inningsPerStart": {"max": 4.8}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "line.ml": {"max": -101}} Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
566-639 since 2021, ROI after the vig +4.8%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 566-639 (n=1205), won 47.0% (95% range 44.2% to 49.8%); break-even 45.1%; ROI after the vig +4.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 328-382, +4.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 238-257, +5.4%
- 2021
- 145-174 (n=319), ROI +2.1%
- 2022
- 105-135 (n=240), ROI +0.9%
- 2023
- 78-73 (n=151), ROI +14.4%
- 2024
- 65-73 (n=138), ROI +4.6%
- 2025
- 72-76 (n=148), ROI +10.0%
- 2026
- 101-108 (n=209), ROI +2.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.