MLB · moneyline · Published system
Fade a short-outing (4.8 IP/start or fewer) starter as a favorite of -150 or shorter
Fade a short-outing (4.8 IP/start or fewer) starter as a favorite of -150 or shorter. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.inningsPerStart": {"max": 4.8}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "line.ml": {"max": -150}} Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
191-252 since 2021, ROI after the vig +11.2%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 191-252 (n=443), won 43.1% (95% range 38.6% to 47.8%); break-even 38.8%; ROI after the vig +11.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 124-160, +12.7%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 67-92, +8.3%
- 2021
- 54-76 (n=130), ROI +6.4%
- 2022
- 43-54 (n=97), ROI +16.4%
- 2023
- 27-30 (n=57), ROI +20.9%
- 2024
- 21-30 (n=51), ROI +8.0%
- 2025
- 30-33 (n=63), ROI +23.0%
- 2026
- 16-29 (n=45), ROI -11.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.