MLB · moneyline · Published system
Fade a short-outing (4.8 IP/start or fewer) starter as a home favorite
Fade a short-outing (4.8 IP/start or fewer) starter as a home favorite. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.inningsPerStart": {"max": 4.8}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "side": "home", "line.ml": {"max": -101}} Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
389-432 since 2021, ROI after the vig +6.8%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 389-432 (n=821), won 47.4% (95% range 44.0% to 50.8%); break-even 44.6%; ROI after the vig +6.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 223-257, +6.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 166-175, +7.9%
- 2021
- 96-121 (n=217), ROI +0.5%
- 2022
- 75-90 (n=165), ROI +6.3%
- 2023
- 52-46 (n=98), ROI +17.5%
- 2024
- 49-47 (n=96), ROI +15.3%
- 2025
- 42-49 (n=91), ROI +5.9%
- 2026
- 75-79 (n=154), ROI +4.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.