MLB · moneyline · Published system
Fade a starter who struck out 10+ last start, as a favorite
Fade a starter who struck out 10+ last start, as a favorite. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.last.strikeouts": {"min": 10}, "line.ml": {"max": -101}} Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
365-498 since 2021, ROI after the vig +0.9%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 365-498 (n=863), won 42.3% (95% range 39.0% to 45.6%); break-even 42.3%; ROI after the vig +0.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 194-274, +0.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 171-224, +1.4%
- 2021
- 68-97 (n=165), ROI +1.4%
- 2022
- 64-92 (n=156), ROI +3.4%
- 2023
- 62-85 (n=147), ROI -3.5%
- 2024
- 52-75 (n=127), ROI -0.9%
- 2025
- 57-70 (n=127), ROI +1.4%
- 2026
- 62-79 (n=141), ROI +3.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.