MLB · moneyline · Published system
Fade a starter who struck out 10+ last start, as a favorite of -150 or shorter
Fade a starter who struck out 10+ last start, as a favorite of -150 or shorter. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.last.strikeouts": {"min": 10}, "line.ml": {"max": -150}} Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
184-284 since 2021, ROI after the vig +6.0%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 184-284 (n=468), won 39.3% (95% range 35.0% to 43.8%); break-even 37.0%; ROI after the vig +6.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 104-176, +1.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 80-108, +12.5%
- 2021
- 42-61 (n=103), ROI +10.6%
- 2022
- 35-64 (n=99), ROI +2.2%
- 2023
- 27-51 (n=78), ROI -11.0%
- 2024
- 25-37 (n=62), ROI +11.4%
- 2025
- 25-36 (n=61), ROI +4.2%
- 2026
- 30-35 (n=65), ROI +21.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.