MLB · moneyline · Published system
Fade road favorites of -150 or shorter on a 4+ game win streak
Road team, favorites of -150 or shorter, won 4+ straight; bet the opponent. Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
81-120 since 2021, ROI after the vig +5.6%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 81-120 (n=201), won 40.3% (95% range 33.8% to 47.2%); break-even 38.5%; ROI after the vig +5.6%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 52-82, +2.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 29-38, +11.8%
- 2021
- 22-35 (n=57), ROI +1.3%
- 2022
- 22-31 (n=53), ROI +11.6%
- 2023
- 8-16 (n=24), ROI -14.7%
- 2024
- 10-9 (n=19), ROI +38.7%
- 2025
- 8-14 (n=22), ROI -2.5%
- 2026
- 11-15 (n=26), ROI +4.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.