MLB · moneyline · Published system
Home favorites of -150 or shorter in division games
Home team priced as favorites of -150 or shorter in a division game. Bet: back them on the moneyline.
1077-544 since 2021, ROI after the vig +0.0%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 1077-544 (n=1621), won 66.4% (95% range 64.1% to 68.7%); break-even 66.4%; ROI after the vig +0.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 657-340, -1.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 420-204, +1.7%
- 2021
- 250-142 (n=392), ROI -4.5%
- 2022
- 253-114 (n=367), ROI +3.5%
- 2023
- 154-84 (n=238), ROI -2.2%
- 2024
- 149-80 (n=229), ROI -1.8%
- 2025
- 147-65 (n=212), ROI +3.9%
- 2026
- 124-59 (n=183), ROI +3.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.