MLB · moneyline · Published system
Home favorites of -200 or shorter off a loss
Home team priced as favorites of -200 or shorter; won/lost its previous game (off a loss). Bet: back them on the moneyline.
438-174 since 2021, ROI after the vig +1.5%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 438-174 (n=612), won 71.6% (95% range 67.9% to 75.0%); break-even 70.7%; ROI after the vig +1.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 260-103, +1.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 178-71, +1.4%
- 2021
- 85-32 (n=117), ROI +3.3%
- 2022
- 88-31 (n=119), ROI +4.3%
- 2023
- 87-40 (n=127), ROI -2.9%
- 2024
- 82-25 (n=107), ROI +8.8%
- 2025
- 54-28 (n=82), ROI -7.1%
- 2026
- 42-18 (n=60), ROI -0.1%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.