MLB · moneyline · Published system
Home underdogs of +131 to +170 off a loss
Home team priced as underdogs of +131 to +170; won/lost its previous game (off a loss). Bet: back them on the moneyline.
312-439 since 2021, ROI after the vig +1.8%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 312-439 (n=751), won 41.5% (95% range 38.1% to 45.1%); break-even 40.7%; ROI after the vig +1.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 183-274, -1.7%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 129-165, +7.2%
- 2021
- 60-98 (n=158), ROI -6.9%
- 2022
- 58-103 (n=161), ROI -11.1%
- 2023
- 65-73 (n=138), ROI +15.0%
- 2024
- 49-64 (n=113), ROI +5.8%
- 2025
- 42-48 (n=90), ROI +15.0%
- 2026
- 38-53 (n=91), ROI +1.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.