MLB · moneyline · Published system
Road underdogs of +131 to +170 off a loss
Road team priced as underdogs of +131 to +170; won/lost its previous game (off a loss). Bet: back them on the moneyline.
621-866 since 2021, ROI after the vig +3.3%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 621-866 (n=1487), won 41.8% (95% range 39.3% to 44.3%); break-even 40.5%; ROI after the vig +3.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 339-475, +3.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 282-391, +3.4%
- 2021
- 126-170 (n=296), ROI +5.4%
- 2022
- 103-151 (n=254), ROI +0.4%
- 2023
- 110-154 (n=264), ROI +3.6%
- 2024
- 104-142 (n=246), ROI +4.9%
- 2025
- 86-129 (n=215), ROI -1.6%
- 2026
- 92-120 (n=212), ROI +6.8%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.