MLB · moneyline · Published system
Starter making 1st or 2nd start of the season after May, as a favorite: fade
Starter making 1st or 2nd start of the season after May, as a favorite: fade. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"max": 1}, "derived.month": {"min": 6}, "line.ml": {"max": -101}} Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
247-287 since 2021, ROI after the vig +0.8%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 247-287 (n=534), won 46.3% (95% range 42.1% to 50.5%); break-even 45.6%; ROI after the vig +0.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 117-158, -6.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 130-129, +8.3%
- 2021
- 36-65 (n=101), ROI -21.8%
- 2022
- 38-41 (n=79), ROI +4.9%
- 2023
- 43-52 (n=95), ROI +1.1%
- 2024
- 46-44 (n=90), ROI +14.1%
- 2025
- 41-43 (n=84), ROI +4.6%
- 2026
- 43-42 (n=85), ROI +6.0%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.