MLB · moneyline · Published system
workhorse (6+ IP/start) starter as an underdog vs a starter with ERA under 3.50
workhorse (6+ IP/start) starter as an underdog vs a starter with ERA under 3.50. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.inningsPerStart": {"min": 6}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "line.ml": {"min": 100}, "opponent.pitcher.era": {"lt": 3.5}, "opponent.pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
134-141 since 2021, ROI after the vig +11.7%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 134-141 (n=275), won 48.7% (95% range 42.9% to 54.6%); break-even 43.9%; ROI after the vig +11.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 73-80, +9.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 61-61, +14.5%
- 2021
- 20-18 (n=38), ROI +20.4%
- 2022
- 33-41 (n=74), ROI +2.8%
- 2023
- 20-21 (n=41), ROI +11.1%
- 2024
- 25-22 (n=47), ROI +19.3%
- 2025
- 16-18 (n=34), ROI +11.3%
- 2026
- 20-21 (n=41), ROI +11.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.