MLB · moneyline · Published system
workhorse (6+ IP/start) starter vs a low K-BB (under 3 per 9) starter
workhorse (6+ IP/start) starter vs a low K-BB (under 3 per 9) starter. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "pitcher.inningsPerStart": {"min": 6}, "pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}, "opponent.pitcher.kMinusBbPer9": {"lt": 3}, "opponent.pitcher.seasonStarts": {"min": 5}} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
114-66 since 2021, ROI after the vig +0.2%.
Published system — made money in 2024 to 2026 after the vig but lost in 2021 to 2023. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021 to 2026
- 114-66 (n=180), won 63.3% (95% range 56.1% to 70.0%); break-even 63.5%; ROI after the vig +0.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021 to 2023: 55-36, -4.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024 to 2026: 59-30, +5.1%
- 2021
- 16-12 (n=28), ROI -13.8%
- 2022
- 25-16 (n=41), ROI -4.4%
- 2023
- 14-8 (n=22), ROI +6.9%
- 2024
- 21-7 (n=28), ROI +23.2%
- 2025
- 18-10 (n=28), ROI +0.8%
- 2026
- 20-13 (n=33), ROI -6.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021 to 2026 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.