NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
1H ATS 60%+ with full-game ATS 45% or lower: 1H spread
1H ATS 60%+ with full-game ATS 45% or lower: 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1SeasonAtsPct": {"min": 0.6}, "derived.h1SeasonAtsWins": {"min": 4}, "derived.seasonAtsPct": {"max": 0.45}} Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
59-49-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +4.2%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 59-49-1 (n=108), won 54.6% (95% range 45.2% to 63.7%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +4.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 29-23-1, +6.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 30-26, +2.3%
- 2023-24
- 29-23-1 (n=52), ROI +6.3%
- 2024-25
- 7-12 (n=19), ROI -30.1%
- 2025-26
- 23-14 (n=37), ROI +18.9%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.