NBA · moneyline_h1 · Published system
1H underdog with a fast start season (+2 or better): 1H moneyline
1H underdog with a fast start season (+2 or better): 1H moneyline. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "firstHalf.line.spread": {"gt": 0}, "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"min": 2}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}} Bet: back them on the 1st half moneyline.
237-308-15 since 2023, ROI after the vig +2.1%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 237-308-15 (n=545), won 43.5% (95% range 39.4% to 47.7%); break-even 42.1%; ROI after the vig +2.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 85-110-5, +1.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 152-198-10, +2.4%
- 2023-24
- 85-110-5 (n=195), ROI +1.6%
- 2024-25
- 65-88-2 (n=153), ROI +4.9%
- 2025-26
- 87-110-8 (n=197), ROI +0.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.