NBA · moneyline · MoneyLine system
Any team at 2%+ EV, -200 to +200: moneyline
NBA: Any team at 2%+ EV, -200 to +200: moneyline. Machine rule: {"ev.ml.pct": {"min": 2}, "ev.ml.price": {"min": -200, "max": 200}}; bet {"market": "ml", "side": "team", "price": "ev_book"} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
132-129 since 2021, ROI after the vig +5.4%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 132-129 (n=261), won 50.6% (95% range 44.5% to 56.6%); break-even 48.3%; ROI after the vig +5.4%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 93-96, +0.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 39-33, +17.5%
- 2021-22
- 63-58 (n=121), ROI +7.2%
- 2022-23
- 19-16 (n=35), ROI +5.5%
- 2023-24
- 11-22 (n=33), ROI -27.6%
- 2024-25
- 14-16 (n=30), ROI +1.4%
- 2025-26
- 22-15 (n=37), ROI +29.9%
- 2026-27
- 3-2 (n=5), ROI +21.9%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.