NBA · moneyline · MoneyLine system
Any team at 3%+ EV, -200 to +200: moneyline
NBA: Any team at 3%+ EV, -200 to +200: moneyline. Machine rule: {"ev.ml.pct": {"min": 3}, "ev.ml.price": {"min": -200, "max": 200}}; bet {"market": "ml", "side": "team", "price": "ev_book"} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
97-87 since 2021, ROI after the vig +9.9%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 97-87 (n=184), won 52.7% (95% range 45.5% to 59.8%); break-even 48.4%; ROI after the vig +9.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 70-66, +6.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 27-21, +20.7%
- 2021-22
- 51-43 (n=94), ROI +12.2%
- 2022-23
- 13-11 (n=24), ROI +3.4%
- 2023-24
- 6-12 (n=18), ROI -21.9%
- 2024-25
- 8-10 (n=18), ROI +1.3%
- 2025-26
- 18-9 (n=27), ROI +41.4%
- 2026-27
- 1-2 (n=3), ROI -48.1%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.