NBA · moneyline · MoneyLine system
Favorite at 4%+ EV, priced -200 to +200: moneyline
NBA: back the full-game favorite when one book prices the bet at 4% EV or more against the other books' no-vig price, at a price from -200 to +200 (moneyline). Machine rule: {"line.isFavorite": true, "ev.ml.pct": {"min": 4}, "ev.ml.price": {"min": -200, "max": 200}}; bet {"market": "ml", "side": "team", "price": "ev_book"} Bet: back them on the moneyline.
51-19 since 2021, ROI after the vig +31.3%.
MoneyLine system — made money 2021–27 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2026-27
- 51-19 (n=70), won 72.9% (95% range 61.5% to 81.9%); break-even 55.5%; ROI after the vig +31.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 38-15, +25.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2026-27: 13-4, +49.4%
- 2021-22
- 31-11 (n=42), ROI +29.7%
- 2022-23
- 7-2 (n=9), ROI +33.6%
- 2023-24
- 0-2 (n=2), ROI -100.0%
- 2024-25
- 3-3 (n=6), ROI -3.1%
- 2025-26
- 10-1 (n=11), ROI +78.0%
How this is graded
This is our own system, not one published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2026-27 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.