NBA · spread · Published system
Eliminated home team late season
Final 12 regular-season games: home team already eliminated. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
111-85-3 since 2021, ROI after the vig +8.2%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 111-85-3 (n=196), won 56.6% (95% range 49.6% to 63.4%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +8.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 63-47-2, +9.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 48-38-1, +6.7%
- 2021-22
- 21-16-1 (n=37), ROI +8.5%
- 2022-23
- 18-9 (n=27), ROI +27.3%
- 2023-24
- 24-22-1 (n=46), ROI -0.2%
- 2024-25
- 26-13-1 (n=39), ROI +27.6%
- 2025-26
- 22-25 (n=47), ROI -10.7%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.