NBA · spread · Published system
Fade conference upset winner vs non-conference
Won outright as dog vs conference opponent; next opponent from other conference. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
186-145-4 since 2021, ROI after the vig +7.4%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 186-145-4 (n=331), won 56.2% (95% range 50.8% to 61.4%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +7.4%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 116-86-4, +9.8%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 70-59, +3.7%
- 2021-22
- 41-26-1 (n=67), ROI +16.8%
- 2022-23
- 37-28-3 (n=65), ROI +8.7%
- 2023-24
- 38-32 (n=70), ROI +4.0%
- 2024-25
- 40-30 (n=70), ROI +9.3%
- 2025-26
- 30-29 (n=59), ROI -2.9%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.