NBA · spread · Published system
Fade hot double-digit home favorites
4+ game win streak, home favorite of 10+. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
93-79-4 since 2021, ROI after the vig +3.5%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 93-79-4 (n=172), won 54.1% (95% range 46.6% to 61.4%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +3.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 46-37-2, +6.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 47-42-2, +1.1%
- 2021-22
- 21-14 (n=35), ROI +14.7%
- 2022-23
- 14-9-1 (n=23), ROI +16.2%
- 2023-24
- 11-14-1 (n=25), ROI -15.7%
- 2024-25
- 26-21-1 (n=47), ROI +6.0%
- 2025-26
- 21-21-1 (n=42), ROI -4.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.