NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Fast starter (+5) vs slow starter (-5): 1H spread
Fast starter (+5) vs slow starter (-5): 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"min": 5}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}, "opponent.derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"max": -5}} Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
45-35 since 2023, ROI after the vig +6.9%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 45-35 (n=80), won 56.3% (95% range 45.3% to 66.6%); break-even 52.7%; ROI after the vig +6.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 16-11, +12.7%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 29-24, +4.0%
- 2023-24
- 16-11 (n=27), ROI +12.7%
- 2024-25
- 20-15 (n=35), ROI +8.7%
- 2025-26
- 9-9 (n=18), ROI -5.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.