NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Fast starter (season 1H margin +3) as an underdog (home): 1H spread
Fast starter (season 1H margin +3) as an underdog (home): 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"min": 3}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}, "line.spread": {"gt": 0}, "side": "home"} Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
54-45-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +4.1%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 54-45-1 (n=99), won 54.5% (95% range 44.8% to 64.0%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +4.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 21-18, +2.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 33-27-1, +5.2%
- 2023-24
- 21-18 (n=39), ROI +2.4%
- 2024-25
- 12-10 (n=22), ROI +4.8%
- 2025-26
- 21-17-1 (n=38), ROI +5.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.