NBA · moneyline_h1 · Published system
Home fast starter (+3 1H) vs road slow starter (-3 1H): 1H moneyline
Home fast starter (+3 1H) vs road slow starter (-3 1H): 1H moneyline. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "side": "home", "derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"min": 3}, "schedule.teamGameNumber": {"min": 4}, "opponent.derived.h1SeasonMarginAvg": {"max": -3}} Bet: back them on the 1st half moneyline.
134-38-3 since 2023, ROI after the vig +2.9%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 134-38-3 (n=172), won 77.9% (95% range 71.1% to 83.5%); break-even 77.2%; ROI after the vig +2.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 46-13, +7.7%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 88-25-3, +0.4%
- 2023-24
- 46-13 (n=59), ROI +7.7%
- 2024-25
- 39-9-1 (n=48), ROI +7.7%
- 2025-26
- 49-16-2 (n=65), ROI -5.0%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.