NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Home favorite of 10+ late season in the race vs an eliminated team (first half)
Home team, favorite of 10+ at the close, is still in the playoff race vs an eliminated team, final 20 games. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
59-42-2 since 2023, ROI after the vig +11.2%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 59-42-2 (n=101), won 58.4% (95% range 48.7% to 67.5%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +11.2%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 19-15-1, +6.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 40-27-1, +13.9%
- 2023-24
- 19-15-1 (n=34), ROI +6.0%
- 2024-25
- 14-13-1 (n=27), ROI -0.9%
- 2025-26
- 26-14 (n=40), ROI +23.9%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.