NBA · spread · Published system
Home favorite of 10+ off a 15+ point loss
Home team, favorite of 10+ at the close, lost its last game by 15+. Bet that team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
48-33-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +13.1%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 48-33-1 (n=81), won 59.3% (95% range 48.4% to 69.3%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +13.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 20-18-1, +0.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 28-15, +24.2%
- 2021-22
- 6-6 (n=12), ROI -4.5%
- 2022-23
- 2-2-1 (n=4), ROI -4.7%
- 2023-24
- 12-10 (n=22), ROI +4.2%
- 2024-25
- 8-6 (n=14), ROI +9.1%
- 2025-26
- 20-9 (n=29), ROI +31.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.