NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Home favorite of 10+ off a 15+ point loss (first half)
Home team, favorite of 10+ at the close, lost its last game by 15+. Bet that team ATS. First-half spread. Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
37-26 since 2023, ROI after the vig +11.5%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 37-26 (n=63), won 58.7% (95% range 46.4% to 70.0%); break-even 52.6%; ROI after the vig +11.5%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 12-10, +3.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 25-16, +15.9%
- 2023-24
- 12-10 (n=22), ROI +3.4%
- 2024-25
- 8-6 (n=14), ROI +8.2%
- 2025-26
- 17-10 (n=27), ROI +19.9%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.