NBA · spread · Published system
Home favorite of 10+ on a back-to-back vs a rested team
Home team, favorite of 10+ at the close, is on a back-to-back, opponent rested. Bet its opponent ATS. Bet: bet their opponent on the spread.
37-28-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +8.9%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 37-28-1 (n=65), won 56.9% (95% range 44.8% to 68.2%); break-even 52.2%; ROI after the vig +8.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 19-12, +17.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 18-16-1, +1.4%
- 2021-22
- 8-3 (n=11), ROI +38.9%
- 2022-23
- 2-2 (n=4), ROI -4.6%
- 2023-24
- 9-7 (n=16), ROI +7.8%
- 2024-25
- 6-10 (n=16), ROI -28.2%
- 2025-26
- 12-6-1 (n=18), ROI +27.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.