NBA · spread_h1 · Published system
Home favorite of 4.5 or less on a back-to-back vs a rested team (first half)
Home team, favorite of 4.5 or less at the close, is on a back-to-back, opponent rested. Bet its opponent ATS. First-half spread. Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
51-30-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +20.3%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 51-30-1 (n=81), won 63.0% (95% range 52.1% to 72.7%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +20.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 19-10-1, +25.5%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 32-20, +17.4%
- 2023-24
- 19-10-1 (n=29), ROI +25.5%
- 2024-25
- 20-12 (n=32), ROI +19.4%
- 2025-26
- 12-8 (n=20), ROI +14.1%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.