NBA · spread · Published system
Home favorite of 5 to 9.5 off 3+ straight non-covers
Home team, favorite of 5 to 9.5 at the close, failed to cover 3+ straight. Bet that team ATS. Bet: back them on the spread.
93-74-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +6.3%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 93-74-1 (n=167), won 55.7% (95% range 48.1% to 63.0%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +6.3%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 51-46-1, +0.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 42-28, +14.6%
- 2021-22
- 19-20-1 (n=39), ROI -7.1%
- 2022-23
- 19-16 (n=35), ROI +3.6%
- 2023-24
- 13-10 (n=23), ROI +7.9%
- 2024-25
- 19-16 (n=35), ROI +3.9%
- 2025-26
- 23-12 (n=35), ROI +25.4%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.